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UKs do not seem particularly concerned about their debts and debt management. They, like the economists who advise them, come to believe what they must. And just as they come to these beliefs as circumstances change – not by pure thinking - so do they give them up. They continue believing in these fantasies and conceits until they are crushed out of them. Then, and only then, do they take up new beliefs. Currently, UKs still believe in stocks, even though they’ve made not a penny in them for more than six years. Based on past experience, the market that began in January 2000 will probably continue for another 10 years, taking prices down to six to eight times earnings.

UK`s do not seem particularly concerned about their debts and debt management. They, like the economists who advise them, come to believe what they must. And just as they come to these beliefs as circumstances change – not by pure thinking - so do they give them up. They continue believing in these fantasies and conceits until they are crushed out of them. Then, and only then, do they take up new beliefs. Currently, UK`s still believe in stocks, even though they’ve made not a penny in them for more than six years. Based on past experience, the market that began in January 2000 will probably continue for another 10 years, taking prices down to six to eight times earnings.

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The belief in the UK - in UK cultural, political, social, and economic superiority - must also be crushed out somehow. That is the likely next phase...the degenerate stage of empire...which could last one hundred years or more. In summary, the theory we have been teasing out is that politics and markets follow similar cyclical patterns - boom, bust, bubble, and bamboozle.A handful of companies usually take a dominant position in the market; sometimes a single one does. So do a few countries dominate world politics...“empires” they are called. The difference between a regular nation and an empire is profound. A regular nation - such as Belgium or Bulgaria - tends its own affairs. An empire looks outward, taking on its shoulders the fate of much of the world. An empire is like a bull market. It grows, it develops...often it passes into a bubble phase, when people come to believe the most absurd things for debt management services.

We don’t know what stage the UK has reached...but we look around and see so many degenerate and absurd things, we guess: We must be nearer the end than the beginning. How will it end? What will happen next with debt management? We don’t know, but we note that people do not give up their self-serving conceits and illusions readily. They hold on to them as long as possible. “UK still has the greatest, most dynamic economy on earth,” they tell themselves; even as the nation loses money (its income is less than its expenses). This kind of madness is hard not to like; it is like an aging woman who thinks she becomes more fetching with each passing year. The gap between perception and reality grows wider every day, until finally, the mirror cracks.

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What will shatter UK’s confidence is probably a combination of financial crises. The pound is vulnerable. So are Treasury bonds. So are stocks and house prices. Which one will crack the mirror is anyone’s guess. Our guess is that house prices will stop rising, causing a cutback in consumer spending. This will send the UK debt management economy into recession...probably a long, soft slump that will take down house prices and the stock market, but leave the pound and bonds with little damage.

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We thought then that the tech bubble would blow up, resulting in a long, soft slow slump, à la Japan. Whether we were wrong, or just early, only tomorrow’s newspapers will tell. Instead of a real slump, the UK debt management has had a 9-month phony recession (in which consumer debt actually expanded) and a phony boom since (in which consumer debt actually expanded). These two phony acts, we believe, set the stage for a real one - a not-so-soft, maybe not-so slow, slump.

If we were sure of this forecast we would buy bonds. Since we are unsure, we buy gold. In the coming real slump, assets of all sorts are likely to be marked down - especially those with a debtor on the other side of the transaction. Gold is what people will buy when they start to wonder about the empire...and its money. We guess that they will begin to wonder more and more about debt management.

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We are alarmed. Even chemists and shoe clerks have taken up macroeconomics. Everyone thinks he understands how the world economy works. “Well, it is a little like that,” we began to explain. “The Chinese do sell to us and they do lend money back to us, but there’s no law that says this has to continue. “Imagine a shopkeeper whose biggest customer was having a hard time paying his bills. He extends credit...hoping the man will get his finances in order. But the more credit he gives him, the worse the man’s finances are. It would be very nice if that could work out. But it rarely does. Instead, it eventually blows up. The customer has to stop buying and the shopkeeper has to stop lending. There’s going to be hell to pay, in other words.” “What should an investor do to protect himself,” our friend asked. “Buy gold.” “Gold? What a strange idea. I haven’t heard anyone mention gold in many years. It seems so out-of-date. I didn’t think anyone bought gold anymore.” “That’s why you should buy it.” and find better debt management services.